Investment Heuristics [Perennial Post]

By Alex Mackenzie at


  • Honest audacity. In many ways, it's outrageous to think that you can change the world, but this self-belief, if paired with radical self-evaluation/candour is the forcing function to do so.
  • People that scare me. Inspired by Graham Duncan.
  • Steep slopes.
  • Life's work entrepreneurs.
  • Chips on shoulders put chips in pockets.
  • Some people just feel inevitable.
  • Look for historians.
  • "Idea maze" navigated.


  • World's most important companies.
  • Toothbrush test.
  • Accidents of history.
  • Logical end states. (Palmer)
  • The "Slinky", eBPF, etc.
  • Power of defaults.
  • The half-life of data.
  • Revenue quality.
  • Look for what sucks.


  • Abrubpt change.
  • Future here, just not evenly distributed. Look at HackerOne for example - "white hat" hackers already a thing at large cos.
  • Non-consensus and right.
  • "Why Now"
  • Keep in mind both absolute topline as well as gross margins. 99% GMs on $1k is irrelevant.